HRCCE Blog

By Carolyn Caywood
Senior Fellow – HRCCE

Envision Virginia Beach 2040, a citizens group appointed by the City Council, met Friday, July 22, from 8:30 to 11:30 a.m. at the Westin, Town Center. The meeting was open to the public. John W. Martin, CEO of SIR and the Boomer Project, presented a customized speech “Communities of the Future: Major Trends and Key Drivers Shaping How and Where We Will Live, Play and Work” utilizing the top 5 demographic trends and 5 societal/cultural trends shaping communities today. The presentation was videotaped and will eventually be available at www.VBgov.com/envisionvb2040. These are notes of what I heard and may not have captured everything.

Mayor Sessoms introduced John Martin, mentioning in passing what involved citizens Virginia Beach has.

Martin began with the “Did You Know?” video of facts about the pace of change. He noted that the reference to MySpace dates it. His focus is on the positive while acknowledging that we must do something about food and water and our oceans. He described Moore’s Law and our progress toward the Singularity, when the rising curve of computer capacity will go straight up.

Martin says people live in cities because they provide a sense of identity and satisfaction of needs. Surveys of what constitutes “quality of life” are consistent in prioritizing 1)education, 2)safety, 3)workforce, 4)social support for aging. The delivery mode will change but Maslow‘s needs will be the same. Wild cards that may affect our future include what the Navy does and world events like expansion of the Panama Canal.. Martin identifies five demographic and five cultural/social trends to monitor.

1. There will be increased population in 2040 – 400 million nationally, a 33% increase, but only a 20% increase in VB. This means more cars, more miles traveled (VMT), and poorer air quality. Lots of growth will fill in the “Golden Crescent” as he names the west side of Chesapeake Bay from Baltimore to VB.
2. The greater density of people means fill-in land use, long commutes, and “exurbia” – new cities out of suburbs.
3. The graying of the population may create a need for younger immigrants. The number who are 65+ will double to 20%. He explained the generational cycle of baby boom and bust. The Gen Y Millennials are 80 million, larger than the boomers, but not a lot larger. Locally we will go from 12% to 19% over 65. Look at Florida where there is already a large over 65 population to see how this plays out. But aging boomers will not mirror older generations, psychologically, sociologically, or anthropologically. They think they are young, their lives are not linear as they restart families and careers in midlife, and they share the experiences of childhood in the ’50s, Viet Nam, etc. Unlike the Silents, their increase in longevity is coming in mid-life. But only a third are in financial shape to retire. They will age in place in their own home, not in Sun City, because they want to be in control. Also, they see themselves as transformational and want to stay engaged. They will not be able to demand half of all health care money for their last two years of life. They will be whiter than younger Americans. Martin mentioned “The Gray and the Brown: The Generational Mismatch” in The National Journal Magazine.
4. The Diversity of the population will rise. The nation will be majority minority in 2050. Immigration has been high making the Millennials more diverse. Schools are barely more than 50% white now.
5. Many households will be multi-generational. Single head of households already one in three. Women are getting more higher education degrees than men. This year women exceeded men in the workforce. An article on “The End of Men” appeared in Atlantic Monthly.
6. The first cultural trend is that greening has gone mainstream. He graphed Greenest / Greener / Green / Faux green / Brown and 78% are green. Green attracts people and development. LEED buildings will lead to sustainable, self-generative buildings able to generate power and water. A self generative community would rely on local food and power. Other factors are wind turbines and sea level rise.
7. He described the new “Fru” – a merger of frugality with sustainability, sensible consumption, less stuff, reuse and recycling for economic reasons, and the end of planned obsolescence.
8. Hyper connectivity leads to sharing, both online, e. g. MIT open coursework, and collaborative consumption, e. g. time-share extrapolated to cars.
9. Personal empowerment like comparison shopping with iphone. The power to review and share bad experiences online has been noticed by retailers who may use a “clout score” based on how connected one is (how many Facebook friends). The downside is an expectation of instant results and erosion of trust when no immediate response is forthcoming. His solution is transparency for government and business and giving back, e. g. the Pepsi Challenge.
10. Health will be a driving force. Obamacare and combating childhood obesity are part of this trend which reflects demographics. He expects more diagnostic use of DNA and business policies for improved employee health.

Additionally, jobs will change and many won’t come back. Boomers will have to keep working later in life, but fortunately they have a strong work ethic. Millennials were taught civic responsibility. Gen X want to just get it done, not have a meeting about it. (He showed the video where a voice reads the text forward then in reverse to describe today’s young people, first negatively then positively.)

After the table discussions, Martin summarized and offered a prescription for VB2040.

Trends:

• Greener, smarter design;
• Multi-generational – Universal Design for persons with disabilities, health focus – maybe a portable temporary hospital room at home;
• Technology, both assistive and monitoring, surveillance cameras everywhere,
• Virtual game-based learning – the class becomes a group, customized learning;
• Energy vehicles serve as power grid storage batteries, communities are less car-centric;
• Solar power becomes dominant;
• The end of the big box store, instead micro-economies e. g. paying the farmer up front for produce all year, maybe even local currencies;
• Smart phone app overlays surroundings with planning diagrams, connections create world citizens.With a 30 year window, we should seek a BHAG, e. g. Austin is the Live Music Capital. Martin proposes we become the “Self-Generative Community.” He showed a person with a logo tattoo and said, “live the brand.” VB should be a place where a desirable young workforce wants to live. We should use Millennials – it’s their future (and they weren’t in the room) – they need to pay their dues and buy in to the plans for their future.

Use the gray wave – age in place with Universal Design. Use boomers as volunteers, e. g. the Older Dominion Partnership

And finally, institutionalize ongoing future planning, e. g. Richmond’s Future.